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Global Detection of Respiratory Illness Outbreaks in Travelers: A Statistical Approach using GeoSentinel Data

Global Detection of Respiratory Illness Outbreaks in Travelers: A Statistical Approach using GeoSentinel Data

Lead Author: Stan Heidema, Ivo Stoepker and Edwin van den Heuvel

Status: Pending Journal Approval

Novel respiratory pathogens have pandemic potential, making epidemiologic surveillance of acute lower respiratory tract infections (acute LRTI) a global public health priority. Monitoring acute LRTI among international travelers provides an important, underutilized opportunity to complement existing surveillance systems, although reliable denominator data on travel volume are often unavailable. Using GeoSentinel data from 2015–2019, capturing syndromic and etiologic LRTI cases, we modeled baseline epidemiology in travelers by comparing generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) using out-of-sample metrics.